Okay, so I’ve been trying to get better at predicting NFL games, and this week’s Colts vs. Bills game seemed like a good one to really dive into. I’m no expert, but I figured, why not try to document my whole process and see how it goes?
Digging into the Stats
First thing I did was just pull up a bunch of stats. I looked at both teams’ season records, their offensive and defensive rankings, you know, the usual stuff. I tried to find some deeper stats too, like yards per play, turnover differentials, and how they perform in the red zone. It’s a lot of numbers, honestly, and it’s kinda hard to keep it all straight.
- Colts Offense: Looked kinda average.
- Bills Offense: Seemed pretty strong, especially passing.
- Colts Defense: Giving up a lot of points.
- Bills Defense: Pretty solid, from what I could tell.
Checking the Injury Reports
Then I spent some time hunting down injury reports. This part’s a pain, because information changes so much. I tried to find the most up-to-date lists I could, and I made some notes about which key players might be out or playing hurt. A big injury to a star quarterback or a top defender can totally change a game, right?
Simulating the Game
To make things a little more data-driven, I did not used a simulation tool. I decided that this time I will do the simulation and prediction with my guts and what I saw of the game.
Formulating My Prediction
After going through all of that, I finally felt ready to make a prediction. I tried to weigh everything – the stats, the injuries, and all the other stuff I read. It’s not an exact science, that’s for sure.
Based on what I saw, the Bills seem like a good bet, from a scoring stand point, they seem stronger.
Reflecting
This whole process was… interesting. It definitely took longer than I thought it would. It made me realize how much goes into these predictions. I’m not sure if my prediction will be right, but it felt good to try to be a little more methodical about it. We’ll see what happens on game day!
