Alright, let’s talk about this Breece Hall situation. It’s something I wrestled with quite a bit heading into my drafts this year, and folks keep asking me about it. So, here’s how I kinda walked through the decision process myself.
First thing I did, honestly, was just remember what he looked like before he got hurt. I went back and pulled up some old highlights from his rookie year, pre-injury. You gotta refresh your memory, right? See that burst, the big play ability. Okay, talent? Check. He definitely looked the part.
But then, the big elephant in the room: that ACL tear. That’s serious business for a running back. So, my next step was digging into that. I didn’t just look at general recovery timelines; I tried to find info on how running backs specifically performed coming back from that injury. It’s not always a smooth return the very next season. Some guys take time to get back to 100%, trust the knee again, you know? That made me pause. Big question mark there.
Considering the Team Context
Okay, so player talent is there, but injury risk is real. What about the team? The Jets. Last year, the offense was… rough, let’s be honest. Quarterback play was all over the place. Now, they got Aaron Rodgers. That should be a massive upgrade, right? Makes defenses respect the pass, maybe opens up running lanes. That’s a point in favor of Breece.
But then I looked at their offensive line. Was it great? Kinda shaky in spots, still some questions there. Even with a good QB, if the line can’t block, the RB’s job is way harder. So, that tempered my enthusiasm a little bit. It wasn’t a slam dunk positive situation.
Workload and Draft Cost
Next up, workload. Is he gonna be the clear bell cow? They brought in Dalvin Cook. Now, Cook isn’t young anymore, but he’s still a name. Is it gonna be a split backfield? How much work will Hall actually get, especially early in the season as he’s maybe still ramping up post-injury? That adds another layer of uncertainty. I generally prefer guys with a clear path to touches.
Finally, I looked at where he was going in drafts. His ADP (Average Draft Position) was pretty high! Often in the second, sometimes creeping into the late first round in some leagues. That’s a steep price for a guy with the injury question mark and potential workload split. Risk versus reward.
- You’re paying a premium price.
- You have the ACL recovery concern.
- You have potential competition for touches.
- BUT, you have massive upside if he returns to form and the offense clicks with Rodgers.
So, what did I end up doing? It really depended on the specific draft and how things fell. If he dropped a bit past his ADP, maybe into the third round? Yeah, I considered snapping him up then. The potential reward started to outweigh the risk more clearly. But taking him super early, like in the first round or early second? For me, personally, the risk felt a bit too high this year. I found myself leaning towards guys with maybe slightly less upside but a safer floor and clearer path to volume in those early rounds. It felt like a more solid way to start building my team, given my own tolerance for risk. It’s a gamble, and you gotta decide if it’s one you’re comfortable taking with an early pick.
