Okay, let’s talk about this Geno Smith versus Derek Carr thing. It’s something I actually spent a good chunk of time wrestling with recently, mostly because I was trying to figure out who offered more reliable value, you know, week-to-week.
My Initial Thoughts
So, I started off just thinking about the narratives. Geno had that crazy comeback season, right? Everyone wrote him off, then boom, he’s playing like a top-10 guy. Felt good, kinda storybook. Carr, on the other hand, moved to New Orleans. New team, decent weapons, supposedly a fresh start after things got weird in Vegas.
My gut feeling was kinda split. Geno felt like maybe he caught lightning in a bottle, could he do it again? Carr felt safer, maybe? More of a known quantity, even with the team change. But ‘safe’ doesn’t always win you anything, does it?
Digging In – The Process
Alright, so I decided to actually sit down and look at stuff properly. Didn’t want to just go off feelings.
- Pulled up last season’s stats: First thing I did was just line up their numbers from the previous year. Touchdowns, yards, interceptions, completion percentage – the usual suspects. Geno looked pretty sharp on paper for that season, definitely better than Carr’s final Vegas year.
- Watched some highlights/game snippets: Numbers aren’t everything. I wanted to see how they looked. I went back and watched bits from a few games for each guy from last season. Tried to get a feel for their pocket presence, decision-making under pressure. Geno looked surprisingly poised, making some tight throws. Carr… well, sometimes he looked great, other times you could see the frustration when protection broke down.
- Considered the situation: This was the big part. Stats and past performance are one thing, but what about now?
- Seattle (Geno): He’s got DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and now Jaxon Smith-Njigba. That’s a strong receiver group. Plus, Kenneth Walker III in the backfield. The offensive line? Okay, maybe not elite, but they seemed decent enough last year. He knows the system, has continuity.
- New Orleans (Carr): He walked into a team with Chris Olave, who looks like a stud. Michael Thomas was a question mark (and still kinda is with injuries), Rashid Shaheed showed flashes. Alvin Kamara is great catching passes. The O-line in New Orleans has historically been pretty solid. But it’s a new playbook, new coach relationship for Carr.
- Thought about consistency vs. ceiling: This became the main friction point for me. Geno’s peak last year was really high. Could he hit that again? Felt like maybe his ceiling was higher. Carr felt like his floor might be safer – less likely to completely bottom out, but maybe less likely to have those huge explosive games Geno showed.
The Back and Forth
Honestly, I went back and forth a lot. One minute I’d be thinking, “Geno’s got the weapons and the chemistry, gotta stick with him.” Then I’d see a projected schedule or think about Carr’s experience and think, “Nah, Carr’s the veteran, maybe a change of scenery is exactly what he needed, less pressure than Vegas.”
It got a bit frustrating, felt like I was chasing my tail. You look at one piece of data, it points one way. You look at another, it points the other way. Typical stuff when you’re trying to predict human performance, I guess.
Where I Landed (For Now)
After mulling it over, watching tape snippets until my eyes glazed over, and just thinking about the overall team contexts, I started leaning slightly. For consistency, especially early in the season, Carr felt like the slightly safer bet if you just needed a steady hand. He’s done it for longer, even if last year was rough.
But, man, Geno’s situation in Seattle is just hard to ignore. Those receivers are legit. If that offense clicks like it did for stretches last year, Geno has the potential to outperform Carr again. It feels like more of a gamble, but maybe with a higher payoff.
So, my personal practice led me here: If I absolutely needed a floor, maybe Carr. If I was willing to gamble a bit more for potential upside, Geno felt like the guy. It really depends on what you’re looking for and your tolerance for risk. Not a clean answer, I know, but that’s where my digging took me. It wasn’t about finding the ‘right’ answer, more about understanding the trade-offs for myself.
