Getting into Major PGA Wins
So, I got this funny idea a while back, maybe a couple of years ago now. I was kind of between projects, you know, had a bit of time on my hands after finishing up a big garden overhaul that nearly broke my back. I started watching more golf, and the majors always seemed like the big deal, the ones everyone remembers. I thought to myself, maybe there’s a pattern, maybe I could figure out who’s likely to snag one.
It started simple enough. Just me, my old laptop, and a spreadsheet program. Nothing fancy. My first step was just listing the winners. Okay, easy. Year, major, winner. Got that down pretty quick going back maybe 20 years.
Then I thought, let’s get smarter.
- What was their world ranking before they won?
- How were they playing that specific season leading up?
- Did they have good course history?
- What about their stats? Driving, irons, putting?
So I started digging. Man, that’s where it got messy. Finding consistent data, especially going back a ways, wasn’t straightforward. Some sites had one thing, others had something different. Stats definitions seemed to change over the years. It was a real headache just trying to get apples-to-apples stuff.
I spent hours, probably weeks, just copy-pasting numbers, trying to clean up data. My spreadsheet started looking crazy. Columns everywhere. Different tabs for different majors. I tried adding little formulas, maybe weighting recent form more, or giving points for previous major wins. It became this sprawling thing.
The Reality Check
Honestly? It didn’t really work. Sure, sometimes a favorite who looked good on my sheet won. But then you’d get these surprise winners, guys who came out of nowhere. My little system couldn’t predict those at all. It was more random than I thought.
And the time it took! I was supposed to be relaxing between projects, but I ended up glued to this screen, chasing down stats from 2005, getting frustrated when data was missing. My wife started asking if I was ever going to come outside again.
I remember trying to explain my ‘system’ to my buddy Dave down at the pub. He just laughed. Said I was better off just picking names out of a hat. He was probably right.
So, what did I actually achieve?
Well, I learned a lot about past major winners, that’s for sure. Got a better appreciation for how hard it is to win one of those things. And I learned that trying to predict golf is mostly a fool’s game. There are just too many factors, things you can’t put in a spreadsheet, like nerves, or getting a lucky bounce.
I still have that spreadsheet file somewhere on an old hard drive. Haven’t opened it in ages. Now, I just watch the majors like everyone else. Enjoy the drama, root for a few guys, and appreciate the skill without trying to pretend I’ve got some secret formula. It’s way less stressful, believe me.
